Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has said artificial intelligence will be able to perform 80% of the most economically valuable jobs within the next five years, sparking unprecedented transformation in industries and society.
“Almost certainly within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it,” Khosla said on a recent podcast. “With a few exceptions like heart surgery or brain surgery, 80% of all jobs can be done by an AI.”
Khosla, who has spent four decades in venture capital, said he has “never seen a cycle like this” in terms of scale and pace of change. He compared the coming transformation to shifts not seen since the 1960s. “Almost every job is being reinvented, every material thing is being reinvented differently with AI as a driver,” he said.
Khosla predicted that while the next five years will bring measurable productivity and GDP gains, the longer-term picture is more disruptive. “Starting in 2030, the changes are going to be so disruptive that it’s hard to imagine how it sorts out,” Khosla said, noting that responses will vary by country and government policy.
By 2040, he believes society will enter an “era of abundance” where people will no longer need to work out of necessity. “The need to work will go away. People will work on things because they want to, not to pay their mortgage,” Khosla said.
This level of disruption will have wide-reaching effects on business and employment. Khosla forecast a sharp increase in the failure rate of large companies. “One of my predictions is that the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we’ve ever seen,” he said.
Despite the potential for “dystopic” effects, Khosla believes the underlying productivity gains from AI and other technologies, like advances in biology and fusion, will produce enough goods and services for society. However, he acknowledged that this may require changes to the social contract and new ways of distributing value.
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