AI PCs will make up 31% of the worldwide PC market by the end of 2025, according to Gartner. Shipments are projected to hit 77.8 million units this year, with adoption accelerating to 55% of the global market in 2026 and becoming the standard by 2029.
“AI PCs are reshaping the market, but their adoption in 2025 is slowing because of tariffs and pauses in PC buying caused by market uncertainty,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, in a statement. Despite this, users are expected to continue investing in AI PCs to prepare for greater edge AI integration.
AI laptop adoption is projected to outpace desktops, with 36% of laptops expected to be AI-enabled by 2025, compared to 16% of desktops. By 2026, nearly 59% of laptops will fall into this category. Businesses largely favour x86 on Windows, which is expected to represent 71% of the AI business laptop market next year, while Arm-based laptops are anticipated to see more substantial consumer traction.
To support this shift, Gartner predicts that 40% of software vendors will prioritise developing AI features for PCs by 2026, up from just 2% in 2024. Small language models (SLMs) running locally on devices are expected to drive faster, more secure, and energy-efficient AI experiences.
Looking ahead, Gartner notes that vendors must focus on software-defined, customisable AI PCs to build stronger brand loyalty. “The future of AI PCs is in customisation,” Atwal said.
Still, the rapid rise of AI PCs masks an industry-wide “TOPS race.” While Microsoft, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm position AI PCs as the future, performance claims around neural processing units (NPUs) remain contested.
As industry leaders push for more TOPS, analysts warn that real-world AI performance may hinge less on specifications and more on practical workloads, software maturity, and user adoption.
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